Organizatia Mondiala a Sanatatii spune in premiera mondiala ca noul coronavirus este mai letal decat virusul gripal.
stirea CNN :
WHO says coronavirus is deadlier than the flu
The World Health Organization (WHO) says the novel coronavirus is deadlier than seasonal flu strains. No one has built up immunity to the new virus, said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
He put the death rate for Covid-19 — the disease caused by the coronavirus — at around 3.4%, but experts urged caution around this figure.
Ghebreyesus said in a news conference on Tuesday:
“While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity,” Adhanom said in a news conference on Tuesday. “That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease. Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”
The new figure for the coronavirus is higher than the 2% mortality rate previously reported, but many experts say it remains variable.
Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said in a written statement on Tuesday that a significant number of mild cases could have been missed.
“Though there is disagreement about this, some studies have suggested that it is approximately 10 times too high,” he said. “This would bring the death rate in line with some strains of influenza.”
John Edmunds, professor in the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said in a written statement released by the Science Media Centre that “it is surprisingly difficult” to calculate the mortality rate during an active epidemic.
This is because “the time between onset of disease and death is quite long,” he said, so the number of deaths should be divided by the number of cases there were two or three weeks earlier.
Interviu cu un Dr.chinez din prima linie (mai vechi – din Feb.4) punea rata mortalitatii la 4.3%.
De asemenea, descria ce e cu “14 zile” de care tot auzim: dupa 14 zile starea fie se imbunatateste (pacientul scapa), fie se inrautateste:
“three weeks seemed to determine the difference between life and death. Patients with stronger immune systems would start to recover in a couple of weeks, but in the second week, some cases would take a turn for the worse. In the third week, keeping some of these acute patients alive might require extraordinary intervention.”
Caixin: Based on your clinical experience, what’s the disease progression of the new coronavirus?
Peng: Lately I’ve been spending the daytime seeing patients in the ICU (intensive care unit), then doing some research in the evenings. I just wrote a thesis. I drew on data from 138 cases that South Central Hospital had from Jan 7 to Jan 28 and attempted to summarise some patterns of the novel coronavirus.
A lot of viruses will die off on their own after a certain amount of time. We call these self-limited diseases.
I’ve observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week.
There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don’t. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.
But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. The elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body’s other organs start to fail, that’s when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.